Before the Trump ban, traffic to/from the USA was on shaky ground from European hubs. While overall international traffic to/from the USA increased to a record 220.8m in 2016, as the table shows, there was a reduction in growth from all the top hubs in Europe. London Heathrow was flat last year against +2% in 2015, Paris CDG was +0.6% (vs +6.1%), Frankfurt was +0.1% (vs +2.1%) and Amsterdam slightly better at +2.3% (vs +4.2%).
The growth slowdown is stark. In fact among the top 10 foreign hubs only Toronto and Tokyo Narita showed increases in 2016 y-o-y. There may be more low-cost carriers flying to/from the USA from regional or secondary airports – but the bulk of DF&TR sales will be concentrated at the key hubs.
Strong traffic to the US from China was a major success story in 2016 allowing DF&TR operators to make up for European shortfalls in west coast gateways such as Los Angeles (LAX) and San Francisco (SFO), but east coast retailers at airports such as Miami and New York (JFK) may struggle this year if a confluence of a high dollar and negative European sentiment towards the US lingers past the second quarter of 2017.
This year’s inbound flows from Europe will therefore be a telling sign of the reaction to Trump’s travel ban – whether or not it gets a green light from the USA judiciary. The mere fact that it has been struck down twice at home is a signal that perhaps the response in its top markets in Europe will also not be too favourable. Canada or Mexico anyone?
